Mary Ngaruiya
Political Markets Correspondent
Mary Ngaruiya is our Political Markets Correspondent, covering the overlap between legislative policy and regulatory conflict. Her reporting brings clear analysis to the federal preemption debate, examining disputes between the CFTC and state gaming regulators. She is also known for tracking emerging legal risks, including questions around whether federal employees may trade sensitive event contracts, and for explaining how rulings can differ across states such as Nevada and Massachusetts.
Articles by Mary Ngaruiya
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OpinionInjuries Out, Championships In: What the CFTC's New Predictions Market Sports Rules Actually Allow
OpinionCan Federal Employees Trade on Kalshi? The Insider Trading Loophole Nobody Closed Yet
OpinionCFTC vs. State Gaming Boards: Who Actually Wins This Fight
OpinionWhy Nevada and Massachusetts Ruled Differently on Kalshi on the Same Question
OpinionWhat Happens to Your Open Kalshi Position If Your State Bans It Mid-Contract
Prediction MarketsEntertainment Prediction Markets 2026
Economic AnalysisEconomic Prediction Markets 2026: Trading the Fed, CPI, Jobs & GDP Data Cycle
OpinionThe Future of Prediction Markets: What's Next for Event Trading
Economic AnalysisUnderstanding Liquidity in Prediction Markets: Why It Matters
StrategyPrediction Market Portfolio Strategy: Diversifying Across Events
Political MarketsElection Prediction Markets: How to Trade Political Events
OpinionPrediction Market Glossary: 50+ Terms Every Trader Should Know
This glossary covers the terms you'll encounter across all major prediction market platforms. When in doubt, come back here. And always read the resolution criteria before placing a trade.
Economic AnalysisPrediction Markets vs Stock Market: How Event Contracts Compare to Stocks
Event contracts and stocks are fundamentally different financial instruments, and understanding those differences will make you a better trader in both.
Prediction MarketsWeather Prediction Markets: Trading Temperature, Storms & Climate Events
Temperature markets are popular because they are resolved based on official, unambiguous data from agencies like NOAA.
ForecastingHow a Polymarket Bot Turned $44K Into $200K Using Microstructure Scalping on Bitcoin 5-Minute Markets
Understanding why 5-minute BTC markets on Polymarket create exploitable microstructure requires understanding what happens inside a 5-minute window as Bitcoin moves and as traders with different information and different speeds interact on the same order book.
Market PsychologyPrediction Market Arbitrage: How to Spot Price Gaps Between Polymarket and Kalshi in 2026
This guide breaks down exactly how prediction market arbitrage works, why price gaps exist between Polymarket and Kalshi, how to calculate real profits after fees and slippage, and where to find live arbitrage opportunities right now.
Economic AnalysisThe Mathematics of World Cup Prediction Markets: How to Calculate True Edge Over the Crowd
This article walks through every calculation you need: converting raw contract prices into implied probabilities, identifying and removing the overround baked into multi-outcome markets, computing expected value on individual positions, sizing those positions with the Kelly criterion, and spotting cross-platform arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi.
Sports ProjectionsBuild a Universal Python Prediction Market Dashboard
StrategyPolymarket in 2026: The Ultimate Guide to Trading the World’s Real-Time Sentiment
Polymarket recorded $10.57 billion in trading volume in March 2026, marking the first time the platform crossed the $10 billion monthly threshold.