Mary Ngaruiya
Political Markets Correspondent
Political economist and forecasting researcher whose work spans electoral probability, geopolitical risk, environmental studies and macro sentiment. She has contributed to academic journals on superforecasting and advises on scenario modeling for institutional research teams.
Articles by Mary Ngaruiya
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ForecastingSuperforecasters vs. Prediction Markets: Who Wins in 2025?
A calibration comparison of Good Judgment Project superforecasters against Polymarket prices across 200+ resolved questions.
Mary Ngaruiya·June 5, 2025
10 min
Platform ReviewsPolymarket vs. Kalshi vs. Metaculus: Platform Comparison for Serious Forecasters
A data-driven comparison of the three major prediction platforms, covering liquidity, fee structures, market coverage, calibration, and user experience.
Mary Ngaruiya·May 28, 2025
14 min
Political MarketsWhy Political Prediction Markets Got 2024 Wrong (And What Changed)
Prediction markets showed consistent biases in the 2024 U.S. election cycle. A post-mortem analysis.
Mary Ngaruiya·May 25, 2025
11 min