Mary Ngaruiya
Political Markets Correspondent
Mary Ngaruiya is our Political Markets Correspondent, covering the intersection of legislative policy, financial markets, and regulatory conflict. Her reporting focuses on the evolving federal preemption debate, including disputes between the CFTC and state gaming regulators, while breaking down the legal and regulatory issues shaping event-based markets.
Mary also tracks emerging legal risks around prediction markets, including questions about whether federal employees can trade sensitive event contracts and why regulatory rulings can differ across states such as Nevada and Massachusetts. Her work aims to make complex policy and legal developments easier for readers to understand, particularly as the lines between traditional gaming, financial markets, and event contracts continue to shift.
Alongside her political markets coverage, Mary is a specialist in iGaming and contributes to BettingTop10, where she writes casino reviews, sportsbook reviews, betting guides, and other practical content for online betting audiences. This experience gives her a broader understanding of the gambling industry, from regulatory policy and market structure to the platforms and products used by everyday bettors.
Articles by Mary Ngaruiya
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Economic AnalysisPolymarket Limit Orders and Slippage Guide
How Polymarket limit orders work on the CLOB, what causes slippage, and how to control execution. Spread, depth, fees, and order types explained.
Platform ReviewsKalshi Withdrawal Problems and When Polymarket Withdrawals are Slow: What Is Happening and How to Fix It
Kalshi withdrawal pending or Polymarket withdrawal slow. How long ACH, debit, crypto and Polygon USDC withdrawals really take.
Prediction MarketsPolymarket CLOB Explained: Central Limit Order Book Meaning and How It Matches Your Trade
What the Polymarket CLOB is, how the central limit order book matches bids and asks, the role of spread and depth, and how your order finds a fill.
Prediction MarketsWhy Weather Traders Must Watch the Aug 24 NOAA Migration on Polymarket and Other News
Polymarket clarifications: Iran Aug 17 resolved YES at 5:30 PM ET, weather markets switch to NOAA Aug 24 after Seoul error, plus rebategate update.
Sports ProjectionsPrediction Markets Hit $50.6B in July Then Fell 56% in August: What the World Cup Numbers Really Show
July was a record $50.6B for Kalshi and Polymarket, then volume fell 56% after the World Cup. Why did open interest collapse by 40%, and what held Kalshi up?
Economic AnalysisKalshi Files for Equity Perps: What the US500 Perp Means and Why Wall Street Just Started Trading
Kalshi filed for US500 equity perps on Aug 18 as Cantor and Susquehanna began block trades on its event contracts. What perpetuals mean and why it matters.
OpinionPolymarket 80% Taker Rebate Allegations: What On-Chain Data Shows About Bonereaper
On-chain researcher gravia alleges 20+ Polymarket wallets got secret 80% taker rebates vs 50% public max. Timeline, speed advantage, and what it means for price
Political MarketsWhy Kalshi Keeps Appearing on CNN
Explore why CNN partnered with CFTC-regulated Kalshi to display live prediction-market probabilities, event contracts, and election data on air.
Economic AnalysisDo You Have to Pay Taxes on Kalshi Winnings
Kalshi profits are taxable even without a 1099. Here's how the IRS classifies them, what form Kalshi actually sends, and the 2026 loss-cap rules to know.
Prediction MarketsHow Old Do You Have to Be to Use Kalshi
Kalshi requires users to be 18, verified by ID and KYC checks. Some states differ. Here's the current age rule, state exceptions, and new 2026 safeguards.
OpinionInjuries Out, Championships In: What the CFTC's New Predictions Market Sports Rules Actually Allow
Discover what event contracts are allowed, the ban on injury and prop markets, and the legal risks of the new 267-page rulemaking.
OpinionCFTC vs. State Gaming Boards: Who Actually Wins This Fight
The CFTC says it has exclusive authority over prediction markets. State gaming boards disagree. Here's the actual legal fight, in plain terms.
OpinionWhy Nevada and Massachusetts Ruled Differently on Kalshi on the Same Question
Nevada and Massachusetts looked at the same legal question, Kalshi's federal preemption argument, and reached opposite conclusions. Here's why the two courts split.
OpinionWhat Happens to Your Open Kalshi Position If Your State Bans It Mid-Contract
If your state bans Kalshi or Polymarket while you hold an open position, what actually happens to your money? Here's what past enforcement actions tell us.
OpinionCan Federal Employees Trade on Kalshi? The Insider Trading Loophole Nobody Closed Yet
Can federal employees legally trade on Kalshi? Here's what the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act actually says.
Prediction MarketsEntertainment Prediction Markets 2026
Trade entertainment prediction markets through Oscars, Grammys, box office milestones, and pop culture events with where to trade and how.
Economic AnalysisEconomic Prediction Markets 2026: Trading the Fed, CPI, Jobs & GDP Data Cycle
Trade economic prediction markets — Fed decisions, CPI inflation, jobs reports, and GDP. Strategies for economic event contracts.
OpinionThe Future of Prediction Markets: What's Next for Event Trading
The future of prediction markets through growth trends, new market types, regulatory changes, and where event trading is headed next.
Political MarketsElection Prediction Markets: How to Trade Political Events
Election prediction markets through how they work, where to trade, and strategies for profiting from political event contracts.
Economic AnalysisUnderstanding Liquidity in Prediction Markets: Kalshi plus Polymarket
Understanding prediction market liquidity through why volume and depth matter and how to avoid getting stuck in illiquid contracts.
StrategyPrediction Market Portfolio Strategy: Diversifying Across Events
Build a prediction market portfolio through diversification across events, managing correlation risk, and compounding returns over time.
OpinionPrediction Market Glossary: 50+ Terms Every Trader Should Know
This glossary covers the terms you'll encounter across all major prediction market platforms. When in doubt, come back here. And always read the resolution criteria before placing a trade.
Economic AnalysisPrediction Markets vs Stock Market: How Event Contracts Compare to Stocks
Event contracts and stocks are fundamentally different financial instruments, and understanding those differences will make you a better trader in both.
Market PsychologyPrediction Market Arbitrage: How to Spot Price Gaps Between Polymarket and Kalshi in 2026
This guide breaks down exactly how prediction market arbitrage works, why price gaps exist between Polymarket and Kalshi, how to calculate real profits after fees and slippage, and where to find live arbitrage opportunities right now.
ForecastingHow a Polymarket Bot Turned $44K Into $200K Using Microstructure Scalping on Bitcoin 5-Minute Markets
Understanding why 5-minute BTC markets on Polymarket create exploitable microstructure requires understanding what happens inside a 5-minute window as Bitcoin moves and as traders with different information and different speeds interact on the same order book.
Prediction MarketsWeather Prediction Markets: Trading Temperature, Storms & Climate Events
Temperature markets are popular because they are resolved based on official, unambiguous data from agencies like NOAA.
Economic AnalysisThe Mathematics of World Cup Prediction Markets: How to Calculate True Edge Over the Crowd
This article walks through every calculation you need: converting raw contract prices into implied probabilities, identifying and removing the overround baked into multi-outcome markets, computing expected value on individual positions, sizing those positions with the Kelly criterion, and spotting cross-platform arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi.
Sports ProjectionsBuild a Universal Python Prediction Market Dashboard
Learn how to build a real-time 2026 dashboard in Python using the Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs.
StrategyPolymarket in 2026: The Ultimate Guide to Trading the World’s Real-Time Sentiment
Polymarket recorded $10.57 billion in trading volume in March 2026, marking the first time the platform crossed the $10 billion monthly threshold.