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Prediction market analysis, forecasting research, and data-driven commentary.
Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Sportsbooks: Where to Trade the 2026 World Cup
Polymarket, Kalshi, DraftKings, and FanDuel are all offering World Cup odds right now, but the prices they're quoting differ by a lot more than most people realize.
5 Cross-Platform Sports Arbitrage Strategies Between Polymarket and Kalshi
This article breaks down five concrete cross-platform arbitrage strategies for the 2026 World Cup using live market data pulled from Polymarket's CLOB API and Kalshi's public pricing on June 11, 2026. Every calculation here uses real numbers, real fee formulas, and real order book depths. Nothing hypothetical.
ForecastingSuperforecasters vs. Prediction Markets: Who Wins in 2025?
A calibration comparison of Good Judgment Project superforecasters against Polymarket prices across 200+ resolved questions.
Crypto SentimentThe Crypto Fear Index Is Broken. Heres What Actually Predicts Drawdowns
The popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index has a 0.12 correlation with 30-day forward returns. Three lesser-known indicators do significantly better.
How-To GuidesBuilding a Kalshi Trading Bot in Python: Complete Guide with Live API
A step-by-step build tutorial for an automated Kalshi trading bot, with working code tested against the live API.
Platform ReviewsPolymarket vs. Kalshi vs. Metaculus: Platform Comparison for Serious Forecasters
A data-driven comparison of the three major prediction platforms, covering liquidity, fee structures, market coverage, calibration, and user experience.
Political MarketsWhy Political Prediction Markets Got 2024 Wrong (And What Changed)
Prediction markets showed consistent biases in the 2024 U.S. election cycle. A post-mortem analysis.
Market PsychologyThe Behavioral Economics of Overconfidence in Prediction Markets
Prediction market traders consistently overprice high-probability events and underprice long shots.