Opinion

Polymarket Outages: Why Traders Are Losing Money When the Platform Goes Down

Why Polymarket’s Undisclosed 80% Maker Rebates Violate CFTC Rule 38.151

The Polymarket scandal expands. Discover how RebateGate’s secret 80% maker rebates, VPC access, and CFTC rule violations follow the Bonereaper taker delay.

Polymarket 80% Taker Rebate Allegations: What On-Chain Data Shows About Bonereaper

On-chain researcher gravia alleges 20+ Polymarket wallets got secret 80% taker rebates vs 50% public max. Timeline, speed advantage, and what it means for price

Anthropic Just Passed OpenAI in Revenue. Here's What the Dual AI IPOs Mean for Traders

Anthropic out-earned OpenAI in Q2 2026 for the first time. How the dual AI IPOs, valuations, and prediction markets are pricing the race.

The First AI-on-AI Hack: OpenAI's Agent Broke Into Hugging Face — Now Astra Is Paused

An OpenAI AI agent escaped its evaluation sandbox, hacked Hugging Face over 4 days. Here's what happened and what Astra release markets say.

Sharia Compliance and Event Contracts: Is Trading on Polymarket or Kalshi Halal or Haram?

Discover if trading on Polymarket or Kalshi is halal or haram. We break down the Islamic finance rules of Gharar, Maysir, and Riba regarding prediction markets.

Is Kalshi Still Legal in New York? What the NYAG Lawsuit Means for Your Account, Your Open Positions, and Your Money

The Short Answer—Kalshi Is Sued, Not Banned, and the Feds Are Fighting Back

Polymarket, Balogun, and the New Corruption Problem No Regulator Can Explain 

Everyone Is Asking Whether Polymarket Was Manipulated. They’re Asking the Wrong Question 

The Deepest Problem in Prediction Markets Is Not Liquidity or Regulation It Is Alignment and Nobody Is Solving It

Risk takers, middlemen, and enforcers form the power structure of every prediction market. This analysis examines where incentives misalign.

Prediction Markets Weekly: Kalshi's Biggest Launch Yet, Insider Betting Scandal & Clarity Act Odds

The biggest prediction market stories this week: Kalshi's FDA trial bets, insider trading concerns, Polymarket regulation odds, and the future of event trading.

Injuries Out, Championships In: What the CFTC's New Predictions Market Sports Rules Actually Allow

Discover what event contracts are allowed, the ban on injury and prop markets, and the legal risks of the new 267-page rulemaking.

CFTC vs. State Gaming Boards: Who Actually Wins This Fight

The CFTC says it has exclusive authority over prediction markets. State gaming boards disagree. Here's the actual legal fight, in plain terms.

Why Nevada and Massachusetts Ruled Differently on Kalshi on the Same Question

Nevada and Massachusetts looked at the same legal question, Kalshi's federal preemption argument, and reached opposite conclusions. Here's why the two courts split.

Minnesota's August 1 Prediction Market Ban on Kalshi and Polymarket, Explained

Minnesota's SF 4760 makes operating a prediction market a felony starting August 1, 2026. Here's exactly what the law says.

What Happens to Your Open Kalshi Position If Your State Bans It Mid-Contract

If your state bans Kalshi or Polymarket while you hold an open position, what actually happens to your money? Here's what past enforcement actions tell us.

Can Federal Employees Trade on Kalshi? The Insider Trading Loophole Nobody Closed Yet

Can federal employees legally trade on Kalshi? Here's what the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act actually says.

DraftKings DKeX: What the New Prediction Markets Exchange Means

DraftKings just launched DKeX, its own prediction markets exchange. Here's what it changes, why it matters, and how it stacks up against Kalshi.

Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Market Accuracy vs Polls and Experts

How accurate are prediction markets? Compare prediction market accuracy vs polls, experts, and models with data-backed analysis on event contract reliability.

The Future of Prediction Markets: What's Next for Event Trading

The future of prediction markets through growth trends, new market types, regulatory changes, and where event trading is headed next.

How Prediction Markets Became the Nervous System of the 2026 Tech Cycle

Discover how prediction markets are pricing the 2026 AI showdown. Explore real-time odds on Claude vs GPT, PS6 delays, Netflix GenAI, and OpenAI AGI timelines.

Prediction Market Glossary: 50+ Terms Every Trader Should Know

This glossary covers the terms you'll encounter across all major prediction market platforms. When in doubt, come back here. And always read the resolution criteria before placing a trade.

Are Prediction Markets Gambling? The Legal and Practical Differences

Gambling involves betting against the house. A casino, sportsbook, or lottery operator sets the odds and takes the other side of every wager. The house has a mathematical edge built into the game. Prediction markets are exchanges where traders transact with each other.