Predictions Market Fans

Prediction Market Platforms, Compared

We trade on these platforms ourselves. Here's how Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Manifold, and Metaculus stack up on fees, liquidity, regulation, and usability — and which one fits you.

Affiliate disclosure: some outbound links on this page may be referral links. If you sign up through them, we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. This never influences our ratings or reviews, which are based on independent testing. Read our full disclosure.

At a glance

PlatformTypeFeesRegionsRating
PolymarketCrypto exchangeNo trading fees (network gas costs only)Most countries — check local availability before depositing4.7Visit
KalshiRegulated US exchangeTrading fee per contract (~0.07 × price × (1 − price)); ACH deposits freeUnited States (all 50 states); expanding internationally4.5Visit
PredictItRegulated US exchange10% fee on profits + 5% withdrawal feeUnited States3.6Visit
ManifoldPlay-money marketFree — play-money currency (mana)Worldwide4.0Visit
MetaculusForecasting platformFree; cash prizes in tournamentsWorldwide4.2Visit

The full breakdown

#1

Polymarket

4.7Crypto exchange

The deepest liquidity in prediction markets — zero trading fees, settled in USDC.

Pros

  • Deepest liquidity of any prediction market — billions in volume on major events
  • Zero trading fees, so edges aren’t eaten by commissions
  • Huge market variety: politics, crypto, sports, pop culture, science

Cons

  • Crypto-native onboarding (USDC + Polygon) adds friction for fiat-first users
  • Availability varies by jurisdiction and has shifted over time
  • Resolution disputes are rare but contentious when they happen

Best for: Serious traders who want maximum depth and zero fees

Read full review Visit Polymarket
#2

Kalshi

4.5Regulated US exchange

The CFTC-regulated US event exchange — trade in dollars, fully above board.

Pros

  • CFTC-regulated designated contract market — the legal way to trade events in the US
  • Native USD deposits and withdrawals, no crypto required
  • Clean, beginner-friendly interface with limit and market orders

Cons

  • Trading fees eat into thin edges compared with Polymarket’s zero-fee model
  • Liquidity is solid on headline markets but thin on the long tail
  • Market lineup constrained by what regulators approve

Best for: US traders who want a regulated, fiat-native experience

Read full review Visit Kalshi
#3

PredictIt

3.6Regulated US exchange

The veteran US political market — beloved community, painful fee structure.

Pros

  • Longest track record of any US political market — operating since 2014
  • Active comment-section community with genuine political insight
  • Simple yes/no contract structure that’s easy to understand

Cons

  • Brutal fees: 10% on profits plus 5% to withdraw
  • $850 position cap per contract limits serious bankrolls
  • Politics-only lineup; dated interface

Best for: Political junkies who value the community over raw economics

Read full review Visit PredictIt
#4

Manifold

4.0Play-money market

Play-money markets anyone can create — the sandbox of the forecasting world.

Pros

  • Completely free to play, available everywhere
  • Anyone can create a market on anything in seconds
  • Surprisingly well-calibrated forecasts despite play money

Cons

  • No real-money profits — mana stays in the ecosystem
  • Market quality varies wildly since anyone can create (and resolve) them
  • Creator-resolved markets carry inherent resolution risk

Best for: Learning to trade, testing ideas, and markets on literally anything

Read full review Visit Manifold
#5

Metaculus

4.2Forecasting platform

Not a market — a rigorous forecasting platform with the best long-range questions.

Pros

  • Rigorous question writing and resolution criteria
  • Best-in-class long-range questions on AI, science, and geopolitics
  • Track-record scoring builds a verifiable forecasting résumé

Cons

  • Not a market — you can’t trade against prices or take positions
  • Feedback loops are slow on long-horizon questions
  • Community aggregate can be sticky and slow to update vs markets

Best for: Forecasters who care about accuracy, science, and long time horizons

Read full review Visit Metaculus

How we rate platforms

Every platform is scored on five criteria — liquidity, fees & costs, market variety, ease of use, and trust & regulation — based on our own accounts, real trades, and published fee schedules. We re-check fees and availability when platforms change their terms. Affiliate partnerships never affect scores: ratings are set before any commercial relationship exists.

Some links on this page may be referral links — see our disclosure.