Forecasting
Research, methods, and commentary on probabilistic forecasting across domains.
3 articles
ForecastingUnderstanding Liquidity Cycles in Live Esports Betting Markets
Ezekiel Njuguna·July 27, 2026
5 minMeta Prediction Markets: What the Reported Arena App Could Mean for AI, Forecasting, and the Future of Event Trading
Ezekiel Njuguna·June 29, 2026
9 minHow a Polymarket Bot Turned $44K Into $200K Using Microstructure Scalping on Bitcoin 5-Minute Markets
Understanding why 5-minute BTC markets on Polymarket create exploitable microstructure requires understanding what happens inside a 5-minute window as Bitcoin moves and as traders with different information and different speeds interact on the same order book.
Mary Ngaruiya·June 16, 2026
15 min