Forecasting
Research, methods, and commentary on probabilistic forecasting across domains.
5 articles
ForecastingThe Milan METAR Outage That Exposed the Flaw in Polymarket's New Weather Settlement Rule
ForecastingHow to Actually Win on Kalshi Weather Markets During This Monster El Nino
Record heat could reshape weather markets through 2027. Learn how to assess Kalshi odds, read forecasts, manage risk, and avoid overpriced trades.
ForecastingHow Esports Prediction Markets Work and Why Liquidity Disappears
Learn why esports prediction markets follow predictable liquidity cycles, how adverse selection affects market makers, and why capital velocity matters.
ForecastingMeta Arena: Facebook's New Prediction Market App for 3 Billion Users Explained
Meta is reportedly building a prediction markets app called Arena, combining AI, forecasting, and event trading. Here’s what the project could mean
ForecastingHow a Polymarket Bot Turned $44K Into $200K Using Microstructure Scalping on Bitcoin 5-Minute Markets
Understanding why 5-minute BTC markets on Polymarket create exploitable microstructure requires understanding what happens inside a 5-minute window as Bitcoin moves and as traders with different information and different speeds interact on the same order book.