Economic Analysis
Macro signals, rate forecasts, and how economic data feeds into prediction markets.
19 articles
Economic AnalysisPolymarket Limit Orders and Slippage Guide
How Polymarket limit orders work on the CLOB, what causes slippage, and how to control execution. Spread, depth, fees, and order types explained.
Economic AnalysisPolymarket Just Exposed the Truth About Anthropic's $2.5T IPO—And It's Wild
Polymarket traders have priced in an Anthropic IPO by October 2026 with a $2T+ valuation. Get the full breakdown of timing, valuation brackets, and AI sentiment
Economic AnalysisPolymarket Just Collapsed OpenAI's 2026 IPO Odds—Here's What $3M in Bets Says Now
Polymarket and Kalshi show OpenAI's IPO is pushed to 2027, with traders eyeing a $1.5T+ valuation. Full breakdown of timing, revenue, and Anthropic data.
Economic AnalysisFed Decision September 2026: Why Prediction Markets Price a Hold at 72%
No change priced at 72.5¢ on Polymarket for the Sept 15-16 FOMC, with ~26% risk of a hike remaining. Here's the data and the Sept 15 CLARITY vote convergence.
Economic AnalysisKalshi Files for Equity Perps: What the US500 Perp Means and Why Wall Street Just Started Trading
Kalshi filed for US500 equity perps on Aug 18 as Cantor and Susquehanna began block trades on its event contracts. What perpetuals mean and why it matters.
Economic AnalysisKalshi IPO Rumors Explained: What Is Confirmed and What Is Speculation?
Kalshi stock is not publicly available yet. Learn about the potential Kalshi IPO, ticker symbol, valuation, private shares, and how investors may gain access.
Economic AnalysisPolymarket Stock Price: Why Every Number You've Seen Isn't Real
Here's the full breakdown of the Polymarket IPO timeline, ticker symbol, private valuation, pre-IPO shares, and the realistic ways investors can get exposure.
Economic AnalysisExit Strategies: When to Sell Your Prediction Market Contracts
Learn when to sell prediction market contracts early, how to lock in profits, cut losses, and manage risk.
Economic AnalysisDo You Have to Pay Taxes on Kalshi Winnings
Kalshi profits are taxable even without a 1099. Here's how the IRS classifies them, what form Kalshi actually sends, and the 2026 loss-cap rules to know.
Economic AnalysisX Money's 6% Yield Could Quietly Fund Your Kalshi and Polymarket Bankroll
X Money pays 6% APY and 3% cash back. Here's how that idle interest can turn into real trading capital for Polymarket and Kalshi, without touching your paycheck.
Economic AnalysisEconomic Prediction Markets 2026: Trading the Fed, CPI, Jobs & GDP Data Cycle
Trade economic prediction markets — Fed decisions, CPI inflation, jobs reports, and GDP. Strategies for economic event contracts.
Economic AnalysisUnderstanding Liquidity in Prediction Markets: Kalshi plus Polymarket
Understanding prediction market liquidity through why volume and depth matter and how to avoid getting stuck in illiquid contracts.
Economic AnalysisHow to Use Prediction Markets to Hedge Real-World Risk
Use prediction markets to hedge real-world risks from weather events to elections through practical hedging strategies.
Economic AnalysisIs My Money Safe on Prediction Markets? Consumer Protection Guide
Is your money safe on prediction markets? A consumer protection guide covering fund segregation, regulation, and platform security.
Economic AnalysisBankroll Management for Prediction Markets: Don't Go Broke
Bankroll management for prediction markets through position sizing, risk rules, and strategies to protect your capital while trading.
Economic AnalysisHow to Read and Analyze Prediction Market Data Like a Pro
Volume spikes often precede or coincide with price moves. A sudden surge in volume without a corresponding news event might indicate that informed traders are positioning ahead of something the broader market hasn't caught yet.
Economic AnalysisWhat Are Event Contracts? The Financial Instrument Behind Prediction Markets
What are event contracts? Learn how these binary financial instruments power prediction markets and how the CFTC regulates them.
Economic AnalysisPrediction Markets vs Stock Market: How Event Contracts Compare to Stocks
Event contracts and stocks are fundamentally different financial instruments, and understanding those differences will make you a better trader in both.
Economic AnalysisThe Mathematics of World Cup Prediction Markets: How to Calculate True Edge Over the Crowd
This article walks through every calculation you need: converting raw contract prices into implied probabilities, identifying and removing the overround baked into multi-outcome markets, computing expected value on individual positions, sizing those positions with the Kelly criterion, and spotting cross-platform arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi.