Manifold Markets: Who Created It, How It Works, Mana Fees, and How It Compares

Manifold Markets is a play money social prediction market platform where users can create markets and trade with Mana. It was founded in December 2021 and has built its identity around open market creation, community discussion, and prediction games rather than conventional real money betting.

Understanding who created Manifold, how its markets work, and how its Mana based costs differ from real money platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and PredictFun can help clarify what the platform is designed to do. Manifold can be useful for practicing forecasting and exploring niche questions without depositing money, but its play money system should not be treated as equivalent to real money trading.

Some Manifold incentives, league rules, and promotions can change over time. Where a figure is time sensitive, it should be checked against the current Manifold documentation or app before relying on it.

Who Created Manifold Markets?

Manifold Markets was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James Grugett and Stephen Grugett. Stephen Grugett is currently identified as Manifold's cofounder and CEO.

Austin Chen has a technology background that includes studying at UC Berkeley, working as an engineer at Google, and serving as a Tech Lead at Streamlit. He also previously founded One Word.

Funding for Manifold has come from a mixture of grants and investment. Manifold was an ACX Grants awardee through Astral Codex Ten. The Survival and Flourishing Fund's records show a $343,000 grant in 2022 and a further $1.241 million grant in 2023. This means that simply describing SFF support as “more than $340,000” significantly understates the documented total.

Manifold also received FTX related funding. A bankruptcy filing documents a $500,000 FTX Foundation grant for Manifold's charitable prediction market work. Separately, Manifold announced a $2 million seed round involving FTX Future Fund through a regrantor and Soma Capital, alongside angel investors. These should be treated as separate parts of Manifold's funding history rather than combined into one figure.

Austin Chen later stepped back from day to day Manifold operations to focus on Manifund. Manifund is better described as a separately incorporated grantmaking organization with close historical ties to Manifold, rather than simply a charity created by the company.

What Manifold Is and Is Not

Manifold describes itself as a play money prediction market platform. Its open creation model is one of its defining features. Rather than limiting market creation to a small group of administrators, the platform allows authenticated users to create markets covering a wide range of questions.

That makes Manifold different from more curated real money prediction markets. The open creation model means that questions can cover subjects that may never appear on a conventional prediction market, provided the market follows the platform's rules.

The platform launched in December 2021. Its code is publicly available through the Manifold Markets GitHub repository, which is released under an MIT license. The repository contains TypeScript code as well as the platform's public documentation.

An account is required for actions such as trading, creating markets, and commenting. The public API also distinguishes between endpoints that require authentication and those that can be accessed without it.

How Does Mana Work?

Manifold's in platform currency is Mana, generally written as M$ or M.

According to Manifold's FAQ, new users receive M$1,000 in starting Mana. Mana is play money and cannot be converted into cash through the core Mana system. Manifold has also supported charitable donations and has offered ways to purchase additional Mana, but the terms and availability of those features can change.

Mana is primarily used to participate in markets. It can also be earned through successful prediction activity and through features such as quests and referrals.

The important distinction is that Mana does not function like a normal deposit balance. A balance of M$1,000 does not mean that a user has $1,000 that can later be withdrawn.

That makes Manifold fundamentally different from real money prediction platforms.

How Manifold Markets Work

Manifold's current API documentation identifies five main market types:

• Binary

• Multiple choice

• Pseudo numeric

• Poll

• Bountied question

Binary markets generally involve Yes or No outcomes. Multiple choice markets provide several possible answers and can be configured so that the probabilities add to 100 percent or operate independently. Pseudo numeric markets allow users to predict a value within a defined range. Polls collect opinions without functioning as betting markets, while bountied questions distribute Mana to selected answers.

How Much Does It Cost to Create a Manifold Market?

Creating a market requires Mana. Current Manifold API documentation lists the following creation costs:

The API also allows additional liquidity to be added to a market.

The M$50 figure therefore applies to a binary market. It is not a universal market creation fee.

Does Manifold Use an AMM?

Manifold uses a combination of limit orders and an automated market maker, rather than relying exclusively on one system.

The current API documentation shows that users can place limit orders. An order can remain open until another trade matches it or the market's automated market maker provides liquidity.

This distinction matters because describing Manifold simply as an AMM would leave out an important part of how trading works.

Liquidity also needs to be described carefully. Additional Mana can be added to a market's liquidity pool, but liquidity providers cannot simply withdraw the Mana they spent subsidizing the market. The amount ultimately returned can depend on how the market's probability moves and how the market resolves.

How Are Manifold Markets Resolved?

Resolution is an important part of the platform because Manifold allows users to create markets about almost anything.

The creator normally establishes the resolution criteria when creating the market and is responsible for resolving the market. Moderation provides an additional layer for exceptional cases.

That means market descriptions matter. A market can be perfectly tradable while still having poorly defined resolution criteria. Before trading, it is therefore important to understand exactly what event will cause the market to resolve Yes, No, or another outcome.

Because open creation is a central part of Manifold, the quality of individual markets can vary.

Social Features That Define Manifold

Manifold is more than a collection of prediction contracts. It is also designed as a social prediction platform.

Markets can include comments and replies where users explain their reasoning, challenge assumptions, discuss evidence, or respond to other predictions. The public API also supports market comments and replies.

This creates an environment in which a prediction can become a discussion rather than simply a number on a chart.

Social reputation and league performance should still be treated as separate concepts. A user can develop a reputation for thoughtful analysis without that automatically translating into a high league ranking.

Manifold Leagues

Leagues provide a competitive layer for Manifold users. They rank participants according to the rules of the relevant season.

League rules are time sensitive. Strategies that count toward rankings in one season may not receive the same treatment in another. Rules concerning trading on one's own markets, unique trader bonuses, market age, and other league mechanics have changed over time.

For that reason, league strategies should be based on the current season's rules rather than an older guide or social media post.

The safest approach is to check the current Manifold league announcement before attempting to optimize Mana earnings or rankings.

Manifold Quests and Referrals

Quests and referrals provide additional ways to earn Mana.

Current Manifold documentation has listed rewards for activities such as prediction streaks, sharing markets, creating markets, referrals, and phone verification. The amounts can change, so figures should be treated as current only when confirmed in the app or the latest platform documentation.

The important point is that these rewards are incentives within a play money ecosystem. They do not turn Mana into withdrawable cash.

What About Bots?

Manifold's API explicitly supports bots and automated trading systems. The platform's user data also identifies accounts that are marked as bots.

Manifold has also operated competitive structures for bots, including the Silicon League. Because bot rules and eligibility requirements can change, specific thresholds should be checked against the current Manifold documentation before being presented as permanent rules.

It is therefore safer to describe the bot system as an evolving part of Manifold rather than attach an exact automation percentage or eligibility threshold to it without a current source.

Manifold Fees Compared With Real Money Platforms

Fee comparisons need to be handled carefully because Manifold uses play money while platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and PredictFun operate with real money or real money related systems.

Manifold Fees

Manifold's trading costs are denominated in Mana rather than dollars.

The platform's fee structure for binary markets depends on the amount traded and the price of the shares being purchased. For example, under the commonly documented fee formula, buying M50ofaYespositionatapricethatultimatelymovesto70percentproducesafeeofapproximatelyM1.50:

M50×10%×(1-0.70)=M1.50

A M50 no-position purchased at 80 percent and moving to 40 percent would produce an approximately M2.00 fee under the same formula.

These are Mana costs, not dollar charges.

Market creation is separate. A binary market currently costs M$50 to create, while other market types have different creation costs.

There is also no conventional cash withdrawal fee for core Mana because Mana itself is not a cash balance that can be withdrawn.

Manifold previously operated a separate real money feature called Sweepcash, but that system was discontinued in March 2025.

PredictIt Fees

PredictIt is a real money prediction market and its fee structure is different from Manifold's.

Available sources describe a 10 percent fee on profits, together with a 5 percent withdrawal fee.

That is different from the frequently repeated claim that PredictIt simply charges 5 percent of profits.

The distinction matters because the profit fee and withdrawal fee are separate charges. Anyone planning to trade should confirm the current terms before sizing a position.

Polymarket Fees

Polymarket requires particular care because its fee structure depends on the venue and market category.

The current global Polymarket documentation describes category specific taker fees. Rates vary by category and are applied through a price dependent formula rather than one universal percentage for every market.

A separate 2026 Polymarket US filing lists a 10 basis point, or 0.10 percent, taker fee for that US venue. That figure should not be presented as the universal fee for Polymarket as a whole.

Therefore, the safest comparison is:

Polymarket global: category dependent fee structure.

Polymarket US: separate venue with its own fee schedule.

The correct fee should always be checked for the actual venue and market being traded.

Kalshi Fees

Kalshi also uses a real money fee structure, with charges calculated according to its current schedule.

The exact cost can depend on the contract price and the applicable maker or taker structure. Because Kalshi's schedules can change, an old percentage should not be presented as an evergreen fee.

Before trading, the current Kalshi fee schedule should be checked for the specific contract and order type.

PredictFun Fees

PredictFun also uses a real money fee structure that differs from Manifold.

Its current documentation describes taker fees based on the price of the contract, along with maker rebates and other incentives. The platform also documents an invite discount and has offered promotions for certain block trades.

These promotions are particularly time sensitive. A zero fee promotion available on one date should not be treated as a permanent platform fee.

The practical lesson is simple: check the current PredictFun fee documentation immediately before trading rather than relying on a historical comparison.

Does Mana Have a Cash Value?

For the core Manifold system, Mana should not be treated as cash.

A balance of M$1,000 cannot simply be withdrawn as $1,000.

Manifold has supported charitable uses of Mana, and the terms governing those uses can change. It has also historically offered other Mana related features, including the separate Sweepcash system.

The safest approach is therefore to treat Mana as a platform currency with no ordinary cash withdrawal value.

Why Play Money Still Matters for Real Money Traders

Manifold can be useful for practicing prediction market skills without putting real money at risk.

Its open creation system makes it possible to explore questions that may never appear on a curated real money platform. A user can create a niche market, establish resolution criteria, observe how other users respond, and compare the resulting market probability with an initial forecast.

That can make Manifold useful as a laboratory for thinking about base rates, probability, evidence, and crowd information.

However, the educational value should not be overstated.

There is no established basis for claiming that writing a clear rationale on Manifold automatically makes someone better at risk management on a real money platform. Play money removes an important part of the psychological experience of trading.

Someone who is comfortable taking large risks with Mana may behave very differently when actual money is at stake.

A more defensible use is to treat Manifold as a low stakes environment for practicing market design, probability estimates, resolution criteria, and information gathering before applying those skills to real money decisions.

Common Mistakes That Cost New Users Mana and Reputation

One common mistake is creating a market with vague resolution criteria.

Because the creator normally resolves the market, the wording of the question and resolution rules matters. A market should make it clear what evidence will determine the outcome and when that evidence will be evaluated.

Another mistake is assuming that M50 is the universal cost of creating a Manifold market.The current API documentation shows that M50 applies to binary markets, while pseudo numeric and multiple choice markets have different creation costs.

Adding additional liquidity can make a market easier to trade, but the appropriate amount depends on the market and the intended activity. There is no universal M200orM500 amount that guarantees a market will become liquid.

League optimization also requires caution. Rules can change between seasons, so a strategy that worked under an earlier league structure may not work under the current one.

Similarly, there is no sufficient basis for saying that the highest ranked creators consistently use fewer or more interesting markets. Such a claim would require systematic analysis of historical leaderboards.

A market with few comments is not automatically a market that nobody trusts. Some legitimate markets may attract little discussion, particularly when the subject is niche.

Posting clear reasoning can help other users understand a prediction, but it cannot guarantee that a market will receive attention or be considered credible.

How to Verify Manifold Claims Before Trading

Manifold's platform rules, incentives, and fees can change. The safest approach is therefore to verify time sensitive information close to the time it is needed.

For market creation costs, check the current Manifold API documentation. The current documentation lists M50forbinarymarkets,M250 for pseudo numeric markets, and M25peranswerformultiplechoicemarkets,withM25 also applying when no preset answers are supplied.

For the starting Mana balance, check Manifold's current FAQ.

For whether Mana can be converted into cash, check the current FAQ and terms rather than relying on an old article.

For quests and referral rewards, check the current app because promotional amounts can change.

For league rules, use the announcement for the current season rather than a previous season's guide.

For bot rules, use the current Manifold documentation rather than relying on an old description of bot eligibility.

For funding, prioritize company announcements, grantmaker records, and legal filings over third party databases. Databases can be useful for context, but their totals can differ depending on whether grants, investments, and other forms of funding are counted.

The same principle applies to real money platforms.

For Polymarket, check the fee schedule for the actual venue and market category.

For Kalshi, check the current fee schedule for the particular contract and order type.

For PredictIt, confirm the current profit and withdrawal fees.

For PredictFun, check the current taker fee, maker rebate, invite discount, and any active promotions.

Checking these figures before trading can prevent a fee assumption from turning into an unexpected cost.

History Timeline for Context

December 2021: Manifold Markets was founded by Austin Chen, James Grugett, and Stephen Grugett.

2022: Manifold received support from the Survival and Flourishing Fund, including a documented $343,000 grant, and also received FTX related funding. A separate $500,000 FTX Foundation grant for charitable prediction markets was later documented in FTX bankruptcy records.

2023: The Survival and Flourishing Fund recorded a further $1.241 million grant to Manifold. Manifold also held the first Manifest conference in September 2023.

2023 onward: Austin Chen increasingly focused on Manifund and stepped back from day to day Manifold operations.

March 2025: Manifold discontinued its Sweepcash system.

2026: Manifold continues to operate as a play money social prediction platform with user created markets, Mana, social features, leagues, quests, and support for automated trading and bots.

Because company locations can be reported differently by business databases and professional profiles, a specific headquarters claim should not be made without a current primary company source.

Bottom Line

Manifold Markets was created in December 2021 by Austin Chen, James Grugett, and Stephen Grugett as a social prediction platform built around open market creation and play money.

Its currency, Mana, starts at M$1,000 for new users and is used to trade in markets, participate in platform incentives, and support other activities within the ecosystem. Mana does not function as a conventional cash balance.

The current Manifold API lists a M$50 creation cost for binary markets, with different costs for pseudo numeric and multiple choice markets. Manifold uses both an automated market maker and limit orders, while market creators normally remain responsible for resolution.

The platform's social features, open market creation, leagues, quests, and bot support distinguish it from more curated real money prediction markets.

For someone learning about prediction markets, Manifold can provide a low stakes environment for practicing probability estimates, market design, resolution criteria, and interpreting crowd information. It should not, however, be treated as a substitute for real money trading because the psychological and financial consequences are different.

Fee comparisons also require care. Manifold charges in Mana rather than dollars. PredictIt currently has a 10 percent profit fee plus a 5 percent withdrawal fee. Polymarket uses category and venue specific fee structures, including a separate US schedule. Kalshi uses its own current contract based fee schedule, while PredictFun has its own taker, maker, and promotional fee structure.

The safest rule is simple: check the current fee schedule, league rules, quest rewards, and platform terms immediately before relying on a time sensitive figure.