Political Markets

Why Political Prediction Markets Got 2024 Wrong (And What Changed)

Prediction markets showed consistent biases in the 2024 U.S. election cycle. A post-mortem analysis.

Why Political Prediction Markets Got 2024 Wrong (And What Changed)

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#election-markets#calibration#political-betting#2024-election#bias
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Mary Ngaruiya
Mary Ngaruiya

Political Markets Correspondent

Political economist and forecasting researcher whose work spans electoral probability, geopolitical risk, environmental studies and macro sentiment. She has contributed to academic journals on superforecasting and advises on scenario modeling for institutional research teams.

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