Predictions Market Fans

#World Cup

2 articles tagged “World Cup”

Prediction Markets Hit $50.6B in July Then Fell 56% in August: What the World Cup Numbers Really ShowSports Projections

Prediction Markets Hit $50.6B in July Then Fell 56% in August: What the World Cup Numbers Really Show

July was a record $50.6B for Kalshi and Polymarket, then volume fell 56% after the World Cup. Why did open interest collapse by 40%, and what held Kalshi up?

Mary Ngaruiya·August 21, 2026
5 min
The Mathematics of World Cup Prediction Markets: How to Calculate True Edge Over the CrowdEconomic Analysis

The Mathematics of World Cup Prediction Markets: How to Calculate True Edge Over the Crowd

This article walks through every calculation you need: converting raw contract prices into implied probabilities, identifying and removing the overround baked into multi-outcome markets, computing expected value on individual positions, sizing those positions with the Kelly criterion, and spotting cross-platform arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Mary Ngaruiya·June 1, 2025
16 min