#Cryptocurrency
2 articles tagged “Cryptocurrency”
Economic AnalysisThe Mathematics of World Cup Prediction Markets: How to Calculate True Edge Over the Crowd
This article walks through every calculation you need: converting raw contract prices into implied probabilities, identifying and removing the overround baked into multi-outcome markets, computing expected value on individual positions, sizing those positions with the Kelly criterion, and spotting cross-platform arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi.
Mary Ngaruiya·June 1, 2025
16 min
StrategyPolymarket in 2026: The Ultimate Guide to Trading the World’s Real-Time Sentiment
Polymarket recorded $10.57 billion in trading volume in March 2026, marking the first time the platform crossed the $10 billion monthly threshold.
Mary Ngaruiya·May 25, 2025
20 min